Technology and the Future of Work
Every society creates an idealised image of the future - a vision that serves as a beacon
to direct the imagination and energy of its people. The Ancient Jewish nation prayed for
deliverance to a promised land of milk and honey. Later, Christian clerics held out the
promise of eternal salvation in the heavenly kingdom. In the modern age, the idea of a
future technological utopia has served as the guiding light of industrial society. For
more than a century utopian dreamers and men and women of science and letters have looked
for a future world where machines would replace human labour, creating a near workerless
society of abundance and leisure.
(J Rifkin 1995 p.42)
This paper will consider developments in technology, robotics, electronic
miniaturisation, digitisation and information technology with its social implications for
human values and the future of work. It will argue that we have entered post modernity or
post Fordism, a new age technological revolution, which profoundly effects social
structure and values. Some issues that will be addressed are: elimination of work in the
traditional sense, longevity, early retirement, the elimination of cash, the
restructuring of education, industry and a movement to global politics, economics and
world government.
In particular this paper will suggest that the Christian Judao work ethic with society's
goals of full employment in the traditional sense is no longer appropriate, necessary or
even possible in the near future, and that the definition of work needs to be far more
liberal. It argues that as a post market era approaches, that both government and
society will need to recognise the effects of new technology on social structure and
re-distribute resources, there will need to be rapid development of policies to assist
appropriate social adjustments if extreme social unrest, inequity, trauma and possible
civil disruption is to be avoided.
.
Yonedji Masuda (1983) suggests we are moving from an industrial society to an information
society and maintains that a social revolution is taking place. He suggests that we have
two choices 'Computopia' or an 'Automated State', a controlled society. He believes that
if we choose the former, the door to a society filled with boundless possibilities will
open; but if the latter, our future society will become a forbidding and a horrible age.
He optimistically predicts our new future society will be 'computopia' which he describes
as exhibiting information values where individuals will develop their cognitive
creative abilities and citizens and communities will participate voluntarily in shared
goals and ideas.
Barry Jones (1990) says we are passing through a post-service revolution into a post-
service society - which could be a golden age of leisure and personal development based
on the cooperative use of resources.
Jeremy Rifkin (1995) uses the term 'The Third Industrial Revolution' which he believes
is now beginning to have a significant impact on the way society organises its economic
activity. He describes it as the third and final stage of a great shift in economic
paradigm, and a transition to a near workless information society, marked by the
transition from renewable to non-renewable sources of energy and from biological to
mechanical sources of power.
In contrast to Masuda, Jones and Rifkin, Rosenbrock et al. (1981) delved into the
history of the British Industrial Revolution, and they concluded firmly that we are not
witnessing a social revolution of equivalent magnitude, because the new information
technology is not bringing about new ways of living. They predicted that we are not
entering an era when work becomes largely unnecessary, there will be no break with the
past, but will be seeing the effect of new technology in the next 20 years as an
intensification of existing tendencies, and their extension to new areas.
I suggest that Rosenbrock may come to a different conclusion with the benefit of
hindsight of changing lifestyles, 15 years later, such as the persistent rise in
unemployment and an aging society.
Population is aging especially in developed countries and will add significantly to a
possible future lifestyle of leisure. Most nations will experience a further rapid
increase in the proportion of their population 65 years and older by 2025. This is due to
a combination of the post war baby boom and the advances in medicine, health and hygiene
technology with the availability and spread of this information. Governments are
encouraging delayed retirement whereas businesses are seeking to reduce the size of their
older workforce. The participation rates of older men has declined rapidly over the past
forty years with the development of national retirement programmes. In many developed
countries the number of men 65 and older who remain in the workforce has fallen below ten
percent. Due in part to technological advances there are more older people and they are
leaving the workforce earlier. Thus this body of people will contribute to the growing
numbers of people with more leisure time. (Clerk 1993)
Professor Nickolas Negroponte (1996) of the MIT Media Lab, points out that in percentage
per capita it is those people under seventeen years of age and over fifty five who are
the greatest users of the Internet, and that the Internet and other information
technologies encourage democracy and global egalitarianism. Furthermore he envisions a
new generation of computers so human and intelligent that they are thought of more as
companions and colleagues rather than mechanical aids.
Jones (1990) points out a number of elements relating to the adoption of new technology
that have no precedent in economic history and suggests that there is a compelling case
for the rapid development of policies to assist appropriate social adjustments. He points
out that manufacturing has declined as the dominant employer and that there has been a
transition to a 'service' or post industrial economy in which far more workers are
employed in producing tangible and intangible services than in manufacturing goods. The
cost of technology has fallen dramatically relative to the cost of human labour.
Miniaturisation has destroyed the historic relationship between the cost of labour and
the cost of technology, allowing exponential growth with insignificant labour input,
which is leading to the reduction of labour in all high volume process work. Sargent
(1994) points out that in Australia during the last decade, the rich have become richer
and the poor poorer: the top 20 per cent of households received 44 per cent of national
incomes in 1982, and by 1990 this had risen to 47 per cent. But the top 1 per cent
received 11 per cent of incomes in 1982, and this rose to 21 per cent in 1990. Meanwhile
unemployment continued to increase.
Jones (1990) further points out that the new technology has far greater reliability,
capacity and range than any which proceeded it. Microprocessors can be directed to do
almost anything from planning a school syllabus and conducting psychotherapy to stamping
out metal and cutting cloth. It is cheaper to replace electronic modules than to repair
them and the new technology is performing many functions at once and generating little
heat or waste and will work twenty four hours a day. The making and servicing of much
precision equipment which required a large skilled labour force has been replaced by
electronic systems that require fewer workers.
The relationship between telecommunications and computers multiplies the power of both,
the power for instant, universal communications is unprecedented, consequently the
influence of any individual economy to control its own destiny is reduced. All advanced
capitalist nations and many third world and communist blocks are now largely
interdependent, this has led to an international division of labour and the growth of the
multinational corporations. The global economy is rapidly taking over from individual
nations.
The adoption of each new generation of technology is increasing and is rapidly becoming
cheaper than its predecessor. Technologies developed in the 1960s have seen rapid rates
of development, adoption and dissemination. Less developed countries can now acquire the
new technologies due to the rapid decrease in cost, and the combination of their low
wages and the latest technology make them formidable competitors in the global market.
Almost every area of information based employment, tangible services and manufacturing is
being profoundly influenced by new technology.
Jones (1990) notes that few economists have addressed the many social implications that
stem from the development of science and technology. Most economists' thinking is shaped
by the Industrial Revolution and they are unable to consider the possibility of a radical
change from the past, they give no hint that Australia has passed a massive transition
from a goods based economy to a service base. Attempts to apply old remedies to new
situations are simply futile.
Jenkins (1985) disagrees with Jones and argues on behalf of the traditional economic
model suggesting that it will continue to work well in the new era and the facts do not
support any causal relationship between automation, higher productivity, and
unemployment. He claims that it cannot be emphasised too strongly that unemployment does
not stem from the installation of new technology. He says it is the failure to automate
that risks jobs and the introduction of new technology will increase the total number of
jobs. Further, he suggests that the primary reason for introducing new technology such
as computer controlled robots is to reduce costs and to improve product quality and that
lower costs mean lower prices. This results in increased demands for goods and services,
which in turn generates higher output and employment and profits. He suggests that higher
profits induce higher investment and research and development expenditure whilst the
domestic producers of robotics and microelectronic based equipment increase output and
employment. He sees the greatest problem simply in the need for occupational restructure
of employment, as the need for software experts, computer programmers, technicians and
engineers are likely to sharply rise.
Rifkin (1995) like Jones believes that the old economic models are inappropriate in the
'Third Industrial Revolution' and describes views similar to Jenkin's as "... century
old conventional economic wisdom" and " ... a logic leading to unprecedented levels of
technical unemployment, a precipitous decline in purchasing power, and the spectre of a
worldwide depression."
It is questioned whether Jenkins' solution of re-training will be able to replace all
displaced workers. Educator Jonathon Kazol (1985) points out that education for all but
a few domestic jobs starts at the ninth grade level. And for those, the hope of being
retrained or schooled for a new job in the elite knowledge sector is without doubt out of
reach. Even if re-training and re-education on a mass scale were undertaken, the vast
numbers of dislocated workers could not be absorbed as there will not be enough high-tech
jobs available in the automated economy of the twenty-first century.
A British Government backed study by Brady and Liff (1983) clearly supported this view.
They concluded that jobs may be created through new technology, but it will be a very
long time before the gains could offset the losses from traditional industries.
Even the neo-classical economists continue to subscribe to traditional economic
solutions, yet they have been met with stiff opposition over the years. In Das Kapital,
Marx (McLelland 1977) predicted in 1867 that increasing the automation of production
would eliminate the worker altogether, and believed the capitalists were digging their
own graves as there would be fewer and fewer consumers with the purchasing power to buy
the products.
Many orthodox economists agreed with Marx's view in many respects, but unlike Marx,
supported the notion of 'trickle down economics' and said that by 'releasing' workers,
the capitalists were providing a cheap labour pool that could be taken up by new
industries that in turn would use the surplus labour to increase their profits that would
in turn be invested in new labour saving technology which would once again displace
labour, creating an upward cycle of prosperity and economic growth.
Such a viewpoint may have some validity in the short-term but one must consider the
longer term effects of such a cycle, it is questionable whether it could be sustained.
Another important question is whether consumerism will continue unabated, whether it is
a normal human condition to see happiness and salvation in the acquisition of goods and
services. The word "consumption" until the present century was steeped in violence. In
its original form the term, which has both French and English roots, meant to subdue, to
destroy, to pillage. Compared with the mid 1940s the average American is consuming twice
as much now. The mass consumption phenomena was not the inevitable result of an
insatiable human nature or a phenomenon that occurred spontaneously, quite the contrary.
Business leaders realised quite early that they needed to create the 'dissatisfied
customer', and to make people 'want' things that they had not previously desired (Rifkin
1996). Nations throughout the world are starting to understand the ill effects that
production has on the 'natural' environment, and the acquisition of goods and services on
the psyche. With more people with less money, and a trend towards a lifestyle that
emphasises quality rather than quantity, it is questionable whether consumerism will, or
is desirable, to continue.
Science and technology's profile grew to such an extent in the early part of this
century in the United States that the supporters and proponents of technocracy were
prepared to abandon democracy, and favoured 'rule by science' rather than 'rule by
humans' and advocated the establishment of a national body, a technate, that would be
given the power to assemble the nation's resources and make decisions governing
production and distribution of goods and services.
The image of technology as the complete and invincible answer, has somewhat tarnished in
recent years with the number of technological accidents such as those which occurred in
nuclear power stations at Chernobl and Three Mile Island, and threats of nuclear war and
environmental degradation increasing and coming to the fore. Yet the dream that science
and technology will free humanity from a life of drudgery continues to remains alive and
vibrant, especially among the younger generation.
During the 1930s, government officials, trade unionists, economists and business leaders
were concerned that the result of labour saving devices, rising productivity and
efficiency, was worsening the economic plight of every industrial nation. Organised
labour wished to share the gains by business, such as increased profits and fewer workers
required. They joined together, to combat unemployment by fighting to reducing the
working week and improve wages, thus sharing the work and profits amongst the workers
and providing more leisure time. By employing more people at fewer hours, labour leaders
hoped to reduce unemployment brought on by labor-saving technology, stimulate purchasing
power and revive the economy. Clearly unions saw the problems resulting from
technological change to lie partly, in increased leisure time (Rifkin 1996).
.
Unemployment is steadily rising, global unemployment has now reached its highest level
since the great depression of the 1930s. More than 800 million people are now
underemployed or are unemployed in the world, while the rich are becoming richer and the
poor getting poorer. Unemployment rates among school leavers in South Australia is as
high as twenty five per cent and nine per cent for the rest of the community, which
leads one to question whether the traditional economic model is working.
Trade unions have pursued their response to unemployment throughout the years with wages
and salaries growing and the working week reduced, for example in the UK the working
week has reduced from eighty four hours in 1820 down to thirty eight hours in 1996
(Jones 1990).
Typical government response to unemployment has been to instigate public works programmes
and to manipulate purchasing power by tax policies that stimulate the economy and lower
tax on consumption. It can been seen in Australia that governments no longer see this as
the answer, in fact there is an opposite approach with a strong movement for a goods and
services tax, to redistribute wealth, as proposed by the defeated Liberal Party of Andrew
Peacock in 1992, and now being re-introduced. Many job creation schemes and retraining
programmes are being abandoned by the new Australian Liberal Government of John Howard.
However the power of the workers and unions in 1996 is severely restricted. The unions
have lost the support of workers as reflected in their falling membership, and no longer
can use the threat of direct action with jobs disappearing fast. The Liberal Government
passed legislation to limit collective bargaining, with unions power of direct action
becoming even more eroded and ineffective because of global competition and division of
labour, and automation gave companies many alternatives. Unions have been left with no
option but to support re-training, whether they believe it is the answer to unemployment
or not.
Today, it seems far less likely that the public sector, the unions or the marketplace
will once again be able to rescue the economy from increasing technological unemployment.
The technological optimists continue to suggest that new services and products resulting
from the technological revolution will generate additional employment. While this is
true, the new products and services require less workers to produce and operate, and
certainly will not counteract those made redundant through obsolete trades and
professions. Direct global marketing by way of the 'Superhighway' the 'Internet' and
other forms of instant telecommunications is making thousands of middle marketing
employees obsolete. For example the SA bank introduced phone banking some while ago,
they now are the first bank in South Australia to trade on the Internet
(http://www.banksa.com.au), and many rural banks are closing. Also, it has just been
announced by the electoral commission that voting by telephone will be trialed next year,
with enormous potential job loss.
The widely publicised information superhighway brings a range of products, information
and services direct to the consumer, bypassing traditional channels of distribution and
transportation. The numbers of new technical jobs created will not compare with the
millions whose jobs will become irrelevant and redundant in the retail sectors.
Jones (1990) notes that there is a coy reticence from those who believe that social
structure and economics will continue as in the past, to identify the mysterious new
labour absorbing industry that will arise in the future to prevent massive unemployment.
Jones believes that industry 'X' if it does appear, will not be based on conventional
economic wisdom but is likely to be in areas where technology will have little
application, he suggests it may be in service based areas such as education, home based
industry, leisure and tourism.
Despite Barry Jones predictions, most service industries are very much affected by new
technology. Education is fast becoming resource based with students in primary,
secondary, technical and tertiary levels expected to do their own research and projects
independent of class teachers with schools being networked and teaching through video
conferencing. The conventional teacher is fast becoming obsolete, with the number of
permanent teachers reducing,
There are numerous examples of workers in service industries being displaced by
technology. Shop fronts such as banking, real estate, travel and many more, are
disappearing. Small retail food outlets continue to collapse, with the growth of
supermarkets and food chains organised around computer technology, and on-line shopping
from home. Designers of all types are being superseded by CAD computer design software.
Even completely automated home computerised services such as a hardware and software
package called "Jeeves" is now available. Business management and company directors are
finding voice activated lap top computer secretaries far more reliable and efficient than
the human form.
The New Zealand Minister for Information and Technology, Hon. Maurice Williamson MP,
wrote the foreword for the paper 'How Information Technology will change New Zealand':
On the threshold of the twenty first century we are entering a period of change as far
reaching as any we have ever seen.
Since the industrial revolution people have had to locate themselves in large centres
where they could work with others, but now new technologies are rendering distance
unimportant. The skills that are needed in tomorrow's society will be those associated
with information and knowledge rather than the industrial skills of the nineteenth and
twentieth centuries. Changing technology will affect almost every aspect of our lives:
how we do our jobs; how we educate our children; how we communicate with each other and
how we are entertained.
Maurice Williamson
(ITAC 1 March 1996)
As Williamson points out, with the explosion of technologies , it is easy to lose sight
of the larger patterns that underlie them. If we look at the fundamental ways people
live, learn and work, we may gain insights about everyday life. These insights are the
basis for new technologies and new products that are making an enormous difference in
people's lives.
Stepping back from the day-to-day research for new electronic devices, life can be seen
as being fundamentally transformed. There is development of a networked society; a
pattern of digital connections that is global, unprecedented, vital, and exciting in the
way that it propels the opportunities for entirely new markets and leisure. As people
make digital technology an integral part of the way they live, learn, work and play, they
are joining a global electronic network that has the potential for reshaping many of our
lives in the coming decade.
In the future, technologies will play an even greater role in changing the way people
live, learn, work and play, creating a global society where we live more comfortably;
with cellular phones and other appliances that obey voice commands; energy-efficient,
economical and safe home environments monitored by digital sensors. There will be "Smart"
appliances and vehicles that anticipate our needs and deliver service instantly. We are
seeing portable communications devices that work without wires; software intelligent
agents that sort and synthesise information in a personally tailored format; new
technologies that provide increased safety and protect our freedom, ranging from
infra-red devices that illuminate the night to microwave devices that improve radar and
communications.
People are also learning more efficiently, with interactive video classrooms that enable
one-on-one attention and learning systems that remember each student's strengths and
tailor lesson plans accordingly. There are lap-top computers and desktop video clips that
bring in-depth background on current events with instant access to worldwide libraries
and reference books with full motion pictures.
People are working more productively, with "virtual offices" made possible by portable
communications technologies and software that allows enterprise-wide business solutions
at a fraction of the usual cost and in a shorter length of time with massive memory
available at the desktop and lap-top levels. There are "Intelligent" photocopiers that
duplicate a document and route it to a file and simultaneous desktop video-conferencing
from multiple locations, sending voice and data simultaneously over the same
communications channel.
With the explosion of leisure activities available, people play more expansively. There
are hundreds of movies available on demand at home, virtual-reality games, a growth in
the number of channels delivered by direct satellite television, videophones that link
faces with voices, interactive television for audience participation, instant access to
worldwide entertainment and travel information and interactive telegaming with
international partners (Texas Instruments 1996).
This paper has considered developments in electronic miniaturisation, robotics,
digitisation and information technology with its social implications for human values and
the future of work. It has argued that we have entering a post-modern period and are
entering a post-market era in which life will no longer be structured around work in the
traditional sense, there will be greater freedom and independent living, paid employment
will be de-emphasised and our lifestyle will be leisure orientated.
I have argued that the social goal of full employment in the traditional sense is no
longer appropriate, necessary or even possible, that both government and society will
need to recognise the effects of technology on social structure and re-organise resources
to be distributed more equally if extreme social unrest, inequity, trauma and possible
civil disruption is to be avoided.
I foresee a scenario of a sustainable integrated global community in which there will be
some form of barter but cash will be largely eliminated, money will be 'virtual'. A
minimal amount of people will be involved and enjoy some forms of high tech activity,
while the vast majority will have a vocation that is essentially creative and enjoyable
perhaps involving the arts and music with a spirituality that involves deep respect and
care for the natural world with new forms of individual and group interaction. There
will be minimal forms of world central democratic government. Vast forms of
infrastructure will no longer be required as citizens will largely be technologically
independent. Most communication and interaction will be instant and conducted from home,
office or public terminal. There will be new forms and ways of living, new family
structures that may consist of larger and smaller groups. A comfortable, pleasurable and
leisure based lifestyle in which all the essentials and wants will be automatically
provided through the processes of the largely self-sustaining and self evolving
technology.
Rifkin (1995) has a similar view, and concludes that he believes the road to a
near-workerless economy is within sight and that road could head for a safe haven or a
terrible abyss, it all depends on how well civilisation prepares for the post-market
era. He too is optimistic and suggests that the end of work could signal the beginning of
a great social transformation, a rebirth in the human spirit.
References
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Services Commission Sheffield England.
Jones, B. 1995 Sleepers Awake Oxford University Press Melbourne Australia.
Masuda, Y. 1983 The Information Society as Post - Industrial Society World Future
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Rifkin, J. 1995 The End of Work G P Putnam and Sons New York.
Jenkin, P. 1985 Automation is Good for Us Editor: Forester, T. The Information
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Kozol, J. 1985 Illiterate America Anchor Press/Doubleday New York.
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Williamson, M. 1996 How Information Technology will change New Zealand
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http://www.netlink.co.nz Viewed 11 Nov 1996.
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