This being my senior project I wanted to look at a topic that I found interesting. Even
though I find most topics in the fields interesting, none catch my attention better than
natural disasters. I have always found disasters intriguing and have wanted to know more
about them. The disaster that I found most interesting were Hurricanes. The thought of
those storms with their power gives me the chills. Ever since I was in the middle of
Hurricane Bob when I was vacationing with my family off the coast of Virginia and we were
asked by the state police to evacuate our house, I wanted to learn more about hurricanes.
Since that I have been able to take classes that enabled me to learn more about
hurricanes. That is why I have decided to take the focus of my paper towards hurricanes.
Furthermore, I am going to look at the economical affects that hurricanes have on the
United States. There are many reasons why I chose to use this variable. The main reason
is I couldn't think of another topic that fit into everyone's lives and had an effect on
everyone.
The hurricane year is broken up into two seasons. They are referred to as early season
and late season. The early season starts June first and runs to September 10. The late
season starts on September 10 and runs to the end of November. The date of September 10
is the midway point between the two seasons. This is the date that separates early season
from late season. This leads me to what my research was about. I am writing about the
differences between early season and late season hurricanes and how they effect the
variable that were mentioned earlier in the paper. I feel that late season hurricanes
cause more economic loss than early season hurricanes.
I will start by taking about what a hurricane is and how they are formed. Then I will
discuss where they are formed in relation to the seasons and why in these places. Next I
will talk about the paths that these hurricanes take in regards to the seasons. Then I
will compare storms of each season from different years starting in 1988 and ending in
1995. Next I will give a brief history about some of the biggest storms to ever hit and
how they compare to the window of years I researched. The data from all the years storms
in terms of loss of both variables will come next followed by the reasons for this.
Finally a summary will end my research.
The research of my paper will involve storms that form in the Atlantic Ocean and effect
The United States and its neighbors. The main reason that I have decided to research this
part of the world and not look at the rest of the world is I live in this part of the
United States and have been part of one of these storms. Also the data was much easier to
research. Most people think of the Atlantic when they think of hurricanes.
The first priority is to find out what exactly a hurricane is. A hurricane comes from
the West Indian word hurricane, meaning "big wind" (New Orleans, weather). A hurricane
forms in the tropics around warm water. It starts as a disorganized storm in the ocean.
When it starts to become more organized, it will be put into the first of three
classifications. The classification is tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center
will get a letter to help classify the storm. When the winds of the storm reach 40mph it
will go into the second classification, tropical depression. The service will give it a
name at this point. The name is pre-determined based on a list that recycles every six
years. The list of names for the next few years are on figure one. A name will only not
appear on the list if it is retired. Finally, if the storm's wind reach 70mph, it would
be classified as a hurricane. The "eye" of the hurricane is the center of the storm. This
area of the storm is calm with no clouds. Around the eye the storm goes in a
counter-clockwise motion. These walls are the most dangerous part of the storm. This is
where the worst weather is( New Orleans, Weather). One thing that I remember from class
was learning that The Northwest corner of the storm has the strongest winds while the
Southeast corner has the weakest. The reason is the Northwest corner adds the actual
speed of the storm to its winds while the Southeast corner subtracts the same amount
wind. So if the storm was moving at 20 mph and the winds of the storm were 100mph, the NW
winds would be 120mph while the SE winds would only be 80mph.The hurricanes are
categorized into five categories seen in figure two.
The hurricane forms in steps. It start with a low pressure area. The air is pulled
inward by the low pressure. The rotation of the Earth causes a deflection of wind to the
right, causing the storm to move in a counter clockwise position. The winds on the
surface accelerate near the center of the storm and is warmed up by the contact with the
water(Britt, Ion Science). Here are the steps to the storm gaining strength:
1: High winds spiraling inward through bands of thunderstorms
2: whip up ocean spray, which increases evaporation. The storm begins feeding on itself,
using the evaporated warm water as additional energy.
3: Rising air near the center of the storm condenses, creating heavy downpours and
releasing heat that lifts the air further. This causes pressure to drop at the surface,
pulling in more air and strengthening the storm.
4: Air rises to about 50,000 feet where most of it is propelled outward, making room for
more rising air.
5: Some air sinks back into the center, warming it and creating the nearly cloud-free
eye.( Britt, Ion Science).
These are the steps involved in the making of a hurricane from normal climatic
conditions, but there are many other things that can contribute to hurricanes from not
being formed. One of them is El Nino. This is a warm-water pattern of the coast of Peru.
It does not happen every year. The warm water causes winds to move towards the Atlantic
Ocean and act a shield and block the formation of a hurricane( Grey, CSU).There many
other weather formations like this that could effect hurricane formation, but are
unpredictable when they are going to happen.
Where the hurricane forms is important to the process of the project. This is not the
major deciding factor, but has significance to the amount of damage. After looking at all
of the maps at the Purdue site, I came to the conclusion that more of the early season
hurricanes start to form in the Caribbean area while more of the late season hurricanes
start on the western coast of Africa(Purdue). There are definitely exceptions to this,
but for the most part it holds true.
In 1988 There was one hurricane that was formed in the Gulf of Mexico and it was an early
season hurricane. The other hurricanes that year were all late season and all originated
off the coast of Africa. 1989 had two early season hurricanes that were formed in the
Atlantic and two that were formed in the Caribbean area. The hurricanes that were formed
in the late season were all formed in the Atlantic. For the rest of my research time,
there were only five exceptions top the rule. After I found where the hurricanes were
formed I wanted to see when they were all formed so I chose to look at the amount of
hurricanes that were formed in each season for each year that I was researching. I also
was looking at the category that the storms were in. I found the following data.
1988 was the first year that I looked at. This year fits the mold perfectly. The early
season had one out of the five hurricanes in the year. It was a category one. The late
season have four hurricanes including one of the big ones during the time period my
research covered. Gilbert reached a pressure of 888mb. It was a category 5. There were
two other storms that were category 4. This year there was a definite difference between
the two seasons this year.
1989 had seven hurricanes in all. Three were early season, none greater than category
2, one that stretched across both seasons, with was a category one, and three late season
hurricanes, categories one, four and five. The category five hurricane was Hugo. Both
seasons having three hurricanes, but the late season having larger storms.
1990 was a fairly quiet year. The early season had 4 hurricanes, one of which was the
highest rated storm, Gustuv which was a category three, but never made landfall, it just
moved up the Atlantic. The late season had four as well, none of which formed into a
major storm. This was the weakest year in my study for hurricanes.
The next year was 1991. This year had four storms. The early season had one hurricane, a
category three, but was a category one when it finally hit land. The late season had a
category four and two other storms. Again, this was not the most active year for
hurricanes.
1992 is the year that through a wrench into the equation. The early season had only one
hurricane, but it was a category five. Andrew was a huge storm. The late season had three
storms, none were higher that a category three.
1993 was a banner year for the point of more late season hurricanes. There were four
hurricanes in this year, all late season. None were too large, category three the
highest, but all were late season.
1994 was another weak year. Five storms, four of which were in the late season, but none
were over a category two. This was a mild season building up to one of the most active
seasons ever recorded.
1995 was the most active season of my research. There were eleven hurricanes, five in
the early season, one of which was a category four. Felix didn't touch down on land. The
late season had six storms. Two category four storms and two category three( Purdue).
The time period that I researched had some active years and some slow years, but one
thing is for sure, the late season was more active than the early season overall. With
the exception of Andrew, All of the major storms that were researched came in the late
season. Hugo and Gilbert were two huge storms that held true to what I tried to prove.
These three hurricanes were the centerpiece to my research. These were some of the
biggest storms of all time. The reason that Andrew was such a big storm was it came from
the Atlantic. It was one of the few exception, but it was a big exception. Hurricane
Camille was another exception. It came in 1969 and was of the strongest storms ever.
These major storms are so major because even though they account for only 20% of the
landfall of these storms they account for 70% of the damage done by major
storms(Landsea,1993). This is a major statistic. It is obvious to see why these storms
are such a marvel.
The track of the storm leads to the economic data. The Atlantic hurricanes have three
major tracks. They can go through the Caribbean and up through the Gulf of Mexico towards
New Orleans and Texas, our they can go toward the bottom of Florida in an almost parallel
fashion or they can get caught up in the Gulf Stream and hook up the United States
Eastern Seaboard. Most of the early season hurricanes follow the first path, while the
late season hurricanes follow the other two paths predominantly(Miller,23).The problem is
that if a late season does take the first path it could be just as harmful. The major
factor about economical loss is the track taken. The first track goes through a part of
the world that is not as rich as some of the other world. Also, when it hits the United
States, the storms are going to hit some of the poorest states in the United States. Thus
the real estate down there will not be as much. This is the exact opposite for the
Atlantic coast of the United States. There are many areas that could get hit. Many
resorts and heavily populated areas that would mean millions of dollars in damage.
Hurricane Hugo caused 7 billion dollars in damage to the city of Charleston, SC alone(
Reiter). This was a classic late season hurricane. Andrew was the only hurricane in my
research that completely through off the late season theory, but it did take the right
track. It hit the southern part of Florida that caused 20 million dollars in damage. The
good part is that if it had moved 20 miles to the north it would have caused an estimated
70 billion dollars worth of damage in the Miami area( Reiter). Another point to this is
this quote from Reiter, " Applied Insurance Research estimates that in a worse-case
scenario , based on the reality of past hurricanes, damage could reach $52 billion in New
Orleans, $104 billion in New England and $106 in southeast Florida." What he is saying is
that if the worst storm that had ever hit before came today, this would be the damage
that would be caused.
The track taken and the season that the hurricane came in work together. This is the
major point of this project is to show that the season and the track are critical in
economical loss. After Andrew, the economical loss by the other storms in the early
season do not come remotely close to adding up to the total of Andrew. That is why Andrew
throws the wrench in. It was the largest storm in terms of economical loss, while the
rest of the early season hurricanes didn't amount to much. The late season hurricanes
caused more damage. There wasn't another Hugo to destroy a city, but the estimated total
from the rest of the late season hurricanes was over $ 27 billion( Reiter).
Another reason that the late season had more damage was the season had more hurricanes
and also had more that touched on land. One of the largest early season hurricanes was
Felix of 1995. It never hit land. The average landfall category for early season
(excluding Andrew) was 1.8. The average for the late season was 2.6( Purdue). Many more
hurricanes that are not significant brought this number down, but because there were so
many, it averaged out.
After looking at all of the data, I feel that I am not completely right about my theory,
but found some good solid evidence. The biggest problem with the project is that it is
very hard to predict the climatic patterns of the Earth. If it was easy, my project would
have come out one hundred percent. I am pleased with the work that I have done and was
happy to research the material. I enjoyed learning about hurricanes and how they work. I
feel that most major hurricanes fall in the late season and that they take one of the two
major tracks. This causes more economical damage than if it were to follow the other
track in the early season. I hope someday the climate will be much easier to predict.
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