The greenhouse effect, in environmental science, is a popular term for the
effect that certain variable constituents of the Earth's lower atmosphere have on
surface temperatures. These gases--water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and
methane (CH4)--keep ground temperatures at a global average of about 15 degrees
C (60 degrees F). Without them the average would be below the freezing point of
H20. The gases have this effect because as incoming solar radiation strikes the
surface, the surface gives off infrared radiation, or heat, that the gases trap and
keep near ground level. The effect is comparable to the way in which a greenhouse
traps heat, hence the term.
Environmental scientists are concerned that changes in the variable contents
of the atmosphere (particularly changes caused by human activities) could cause the
Earth's surface to warm up to a dangerous degree. Even a limited rise in average
surface temperature might lead to at least partial melting of the polar ice caps and
hence a major rise in sea level, along with other severe environmental agitation. An
example of a runaway greenhouse effect is Earth's near-twin planetary neighbor
Venus. Because of Venus's thick CO2 atmosphere, the planet's cloud-covered
surface is hot enough to melt lead.
Water vapor is an important "greenhouse" gas. It is a major reason why
humid regions experience less cooling at night than do dry regions. However,
variations in the atmosphere's CO2 content are what have played a major role
in past climatic changes. In recent decades there has been a global increase in
atmospheric CO2, largely as a result of the burning of fossil fuels. If the many
other determinants of the Earth's present global climate remain more or less
constant, the CO2 increase should raise the average temperature at the Earth's
surface. As the atmosphere warmed, the amount of H2O would probably also
increase, because warm air can contain more H2O than can cooler air. This process
might go on indefinitely. On the other hand, reverse processes could develop such
as increased cloud cover and increased absorption of CO2 by phytoplankton in the
ocean. These would act as natural feedbacks, lowering temperatures.
In fact, a great deal remains unknown about the cycling of carbon through
the environment, and in particular about the role of oceans in this atmospheric
carbon cycle. Many further uncertainties exist in greenhouse-effect studies because
the temperature records being used tend to represent the warmer urban areas rather
than the global environment. Beyond that, the effects of CH4, natural trace gases,
and industrial pollutants--indeed, the complex interactions of all of these climate
controls working together--are only beginning to be understood by workers in the
environmental sciences.
Despite such uncertainties, numerous scientists have maintained that the rise
in global temperatures in the 1980s and early 1990s is a result of the greenhouse
effect. A report issued in 1990 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), prepared by 170 scientists worldwide, further warned that the effect could
continue to increase markedly. Most major Western industrial nations have pledged
to stabilize or reduce their CO2 emissions during the 1990s. The U.S. pledge thus
far concerns only chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). CFCs attack the ozone layer and
contribute thereby to the greenhouse effect, because the ozone layer protects the
growth of ocean phytoplankton. would probably also increase, because warm air
can contain more water than can cooler air. This process might go on indefinitely.
On the other hand, reverse processes could develop such as increased cloud cover
and increased absorption of CO2 by phytoplankton in the ocean. These would act
as natural feedbacks, lowering temperatures.
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